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ROAS & Incrementality
·Sep 9, 2026
The One-Hour Black Friday Claim Ratio Audit
Six steps and one hour produce the two numbers that every Black Friday ROAS figure depends on: the claim ratio and the coverage rate. No vendor, no new tracking, last year's data. The procedure, with an illustrative worked example.
Causal Inference
·Sep 9, 2026
Can Your Brand Measure Black Friday Lift at All? The Floor
Before spending a cent on a Black Friday test, two tables and one multiplication say whether it can produce an answer. For a typical DTC brand the standard design sees an 8.3% lift and nothing smaller. Find your row.
Causal Inference
·Sep 9, 2026
A Dutch Province Geo Test Cannot Reach p Below 0.05
One treated province against eleven placebos gives twelve possible orderings, so the best p-value the design can return is 1 in 12. That is above 0.05 before a euro is spent. The floor by country, and the three fixes.
Ecommerce Analytics
·Sep 9, 2026
Five Monday Numbers for DTC Owners Before Black Friday
There are eleven Mondays left before Black Friday 2026. The Price of Being Found names five numbers that need no vendor and answer the only question a CFO is really asking. The week-by-week plan to have all five by the peak.
ROAS & Incrementality
·Sep 9, 2026
Four CFO Questions About the Black Friday Budget, Answered
The Q4 budget review asks the same four questions every year, and platform ROAS answers none of them. The answers that survive come from coverage, the claim ratio, a qualified holdout and an interval. Scripted, with dates.
Attribution
·Sep 9, 2026
Klaviyo Will Claim Your Black Friday. How Much to Believe
In Cyber Week nearly every buyer opened or clicked a message inside the attribution window, so the email platform's share looks enormous. It is a claim under a rule, not a cause. The cheapest holdout in your stack says how much is real.
Ecommerce Analytics
·Sep 9, 2026
The Black Friday Number Nobody Checks: Unassigned Traffic
Half the journey can be missing and every dashboard still renders. The coverage rate is one query in GA4, it explains most of your cost inflation, and almost nobody has run it. Cyber Week is the week to.
Causal Inference
·Sep 9, 2026
Retargeting Holdout Before Black Friday: The Mystery Box
Retargeting reaches people who already came to your store, which is why it reports well and why nobody knows what it adds. A regional holdout before Black Friday is the only way to find out, and the three possible answers are all useful.
Causal Inference
·Sep 9, 2026
Ask Your Attribution Vendor for a Placebo Test
Thirty-one commercial measurement vendors, audited between 14 August and 2 September 2026, and not one published validation against randomised experiments. Four questions to ask yours before the Black Friday read, including the one about nothing.
ROAS & Incrementality
·Sep 9, 2026
One Number for the Black Friday Planning Slide
The Q4 plan usually carries a slide of platform ROAS figures that cannot be compared to each other. Here is the one-line-per-channel replacement, with an illustrative fill, and the reason each field is there.
ROAS & Incrementality
·Sep 9, 2026
The Sunk Cost Prison of Last Year's Black Friday Winner
The channel that reported the best Black Friday ROAS last year is about to get the biggest budget this year, unexamined. Two experiments explain why that is the most expensive habit in the plan.
Attribution
·Sep 9, 2026
The Black Friday Post-Mortem You Cannot Run in January
By January the data behind Cyber Week is a model of itself. Meta's windows have closed, GA4's default retention has expired the events, and nobody remembers what was live on the Sunday. The post-mortem window is the week of 7 December.
ROAS & Incrementality
·Sep 9, 2026
Black Friday Discount Depth: The Loss You Book in Advance
A 30% discount does not cost you 30%. It moves your break-even ROAS from 2.0 to 3.5 on a 50% margin, before a single ad runs. The arithmetic, in a table you can rebuild with your own numbers.
ROAS & Incrementality
·Sep 9, 2026
Black Friday ROAS: What Platforms Report vs Orders Shipped
Meta says one ROAS, Google another, the store a third. The Price of Being Found lists four properties a defensible number has, and platform-reported Black Friday ROAS has none of them.
Guide
·Sep 9, 2026
Fake Black Friday Countdowns Are Illegal in the EU
Octalysis black hat works on customers and on regulators. The EU blacklists false limited-time claims outright and fixes the reference price of any discount to the previous 30 days. Where the line is, with dates.
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