TikTok shows 2.3x ROAS.
Meta shows 4.2x.
Which one do you scale?

For Dutch Shopify beauty brands scaling from €100K to €300K/month. Upload your GA4 data. Know which channels drive incremental sales in minutes.

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€99. Results in minutes. Full refund if you don't see it. 89% stay.

✓ 89 Dutch beauty brands
✓ 95% accuracy
✓ 10 min setup

The €140K question: Is TikTok working or stealing credit?

You're spending €180K/year on TikTok. Influencer collabs. UGC content. Product discovery.

TikTok dashboard says 2.3x ROAS. Meta dashboard says 4.2x. But what if TikTok creates awareness that Meta converts weeks later?

The math:

TikTok "attributed" revenue: €180K × 2.3x = €414K
TikTok incremental revenue: Test market shows 34% drop = €140K lost

Difference: €140K revenue TikTok drives but doesn't get credit for.

Cut TikTok = save €180K, lose €140K revenue, collapse funnel.
Keep TikTok = justify "low ROAS" to CFO forever.

You're stuck. Because you're measuring correlation (last click), not causality (what actually drives sales).

Correlation vs Causality: The difference is €140K

Traditional attribution (correlation):

Meta had the last click → Meta gets 100% credit → TikTok shows "low ROAS" → Cut TikTok → Funnel collapses.

Behavioral intelligence (causality):

TikTok creates awareness → Pinterest drives consideration → Meta converts → That's a 21-day customer journey → TikTok drives €140K incremental revenue → Keep TikTok, scale it.

The formula:

Incremental Sales = (Revenue with Channel) - (Revenue without Channel)

Traditional attribution: Measures correlation (which channel touched the customer last)
Behavioral intelligence: Measures causality (which channel drives incremental sales)

95% accuracy vs 30-60% industry standard. 964 companies. 89 Dutch beauty brands already see their real numbers.

How beauty customers actually buy: The paths your dashboard hides

Path #1: TikTok → Pinterest → Meta

Customer sees TikTok review (Day 1) → Saves to Pinterest board (Day 7) → Clicks Meta retargeting ad (Day 21) → Buys.

Last-click attribution: Meta gets 100% credit. TikTok shows "low ROAS."
Causal analysis: TikTok drives 34% of this sale. Cut TikTok = lose this customer.

Path #2: Influencer → Instagram → Google → Meta

Influencer posts review (Day 1) → Customer checks Instagram (Day 5) → Googles product (Day 14) → Clicks Meta ad (Day 21) → Buys.

Last-click attribution: Meta gets 100% credit. Influencer shows zero ROI.
Causal analysis: Influencer drives 40% of this sale. Cut influencer budget = 28% revenue drop.

Path #3: YouTube → TikTok → Meta

Customer watches YouTube tutorial (Day 1) → Sees TikTok UGC (Day 10) → Clicks Meta retargeting (Day 18) → Buys.

Last-click attribution: Meta gets 100% credit. YouTube shows "low ROAS."
Causal analysis: YouTube drives 25% of this sale. Cut YouTube = lose top-of-funnel awareness.

Pattern: Visual-first channels (TikTok, Instagram, Pinterest, YouTube) show "low ROAS" in dashboards. But they drive 40-60% of incremental sales through multi-touch paths. Cut them = collapse your funnel.

Why beauty attribution is harder than other verticals

21-day consideration cycles

Fashion: 3-7 days. Food & Beverage: 1-3 days. Beauty: 14-30 days. Longer cycles = more touchpoints = more attribution errors. Last-click gives 100% credit to the final touchpoint, ignoring 5-10 prior interactions.

Visual-first discovery

90% of beauty purchases start with visual content (TikTok, Instagram, Pinterest, YouTube). But visual channels show "low ROAS" because they create awareness, not conversions. Cut them = kill product discovery.

Influencer ROI mystery

Spent €50K on influencer collabs. Dashboard shows zero ROI. CFO wants to cut budget. But influencers create awareness that feeds Meta, Google, and organic for 30+ days. Cut them = 28% revenue drop.

Community-driven sales

UGC content, reviews, community posts show zero "attributed revenue." But remove them? Sales drop 40%. Because community creates trust that converts weeks later through other channels.

Bottom line: Beauty brands have the longest consideration cycles, most visual-first channels, and highest community influence. Traditional attribution fails hardest here. Causal analysis works best here.

89 Dutch beauty brands already see their real numbers

340%

Average ROI increase after seeing real attribution

95%

Accuracy vs 30-60% industry standard

89%

Stay because the data is undeniable

964 companies switched to behavioral intelligence. Not because we're great salespeople. Because once you see which channels drive incremental sales, you can't unsee it.

Common questions from Dutch beauty brands

Why does TikTok show 2.3x ROAS while Meta shows 4.2x ROAS?

TikTok creates awareness that Meta converts 14-21 days later. Last-click attribution gives 100% credit to Meta, but TikTok started the customer journey. Formula: Incremental Sales = Revenue with TikTok - Revenue without TikTok. Cut TikTok = 34% revenue drop in 21 days.

How do I know if cutting TikTok will collapse my funnel or save money?

Upload your GA4 CSV and get causal inference analysis in minutes. Measures incremental sales: Revenue with TikTok - Revenue without TikTok. If TikTok drives awareness that feeds Meta/Google conversions weeks later, cutting it collapses the funnel. If TikTok steals credit, cutting saves money. 95% accuracy.

What's the difference between correlation and causality in beauty marketing?

Correlation: Meta had the last click, so it gets 100% credit (wrong). Causality: TikTok created awareness, Pinterest drove consideration, Meta converted (right). Causal analysis shows which channels drive incremental sales. Traditional attribution measures correlation. Behavioral intelligence measures causality.

Why do influencer collaborations show zero ROI in my dashboard?

Influencers create awareness that converts 21-30 days later through other channels. Last-click attribution gives 100% credit to Meta/Google, zero to influencers. But cut influencer budget? Revenue drops 28-40% in 30 days. Causal analysis reveals the true impact.

Can I run this analysis with my Shopify + GA4 data?

Yes. Upload your GA4 CSV and get results in minutes. Connect Shopify to enhance the analysis with revenue data. Requires 3+ months of historical data. 89 Dutch beauty brands already use it.

How much does attribution analysis cost?

€99 one-time analysis. Upload your data, get results in minutes. If you don't see which channels drive incremental sales, full refund. No questions. 89% continue because the data is undeniable. Subscription: €299/month for continuous tracking.

Know which channels drive incremental sales

Not guesses. Not correlations. Upload your GA4 data and see the real numbers in minutes.

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€99. Results in minutes. Full refund if you don't see it. 89 Dutch beauty brands already know.