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Causal Inference

2 min read

Vary one element, learn something reusable

Creative tests that change several things at once produce a winner and no transferable knowledge. Isolating one element is what makes the result apply to the next thing you make.

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Quick Answer·2 min read

Vary one element, learn something reusable: Creative tests that change several things at once produce a winner and no transferable knowledge. Isolating one element is what makes the result apply to the next thing you make.

Read the full article below for detailed insights and actionable strategies.

Key insight

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A test that changes five things tells you which of two images won, and nothing you can apply to the sixth image. Isolation is what makes a result reusable.

Winner versus knowledge

Two creatives, entirely different, one wins. You now know which to run. You know nothing about why, so the next pair is another coin flip.

Two creatives differing only in headline, one wins. You now know something about headlines that applies to everything you make next.

The second is worth more even when the first produces a bigger immediate lift.

What counts as one element

One elementNot one element
Headline text, same layout and imageA different concept entirely
Image background, same subject and copyNew image and new copy
Price point, same pagePrice plus a new badge
First line of the descriptionRewritten description

The right-hand column is not wrong to run. It is just a choice of a winner rather than a lesson, and it should be labelled as such so nobody later cites it as evidence about headlines.

The exception worth knowing

When you have no idea what works at all, a wide test that varies everything is a reasonable first move. It finds the rough region quickly.

Then narrow. The mistake is staying in wide-test mode forever and wondering why the learnings never compound.

Sample size before you start

Decide how many conversions constitute a readable result before running, and stop at that point rather than when a difference appears. Watching a test until it looks significant is how noise gets promoted to a finding.

The read

A causal read on a Google Analytics export returns an estimate with a confidence interval and a coverage share, for 99 euro once, refunded if it does not move a budget decision. Where the design cannot support a causal claim it says so instead of producing a number.

The interactive demo shows both outcomes with no signup.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why test one element at a time?

A test of two entirely different creatives tells you which won and nothing about why, so the next pair is another coin flip. A test that isolates the headline teaches you something that applies to everything you make next.

Is a wide test ever right?

Yes, when you have no idea what works at all. A wide test finds the rough region quickly. The mistake is staying in wide-test mode permanently and wondering why nothing compounds.

When should I stop a creative test?

At the conversion count you decided on before starting. Watching until a difference appears is how noise gets promoted to a finding.

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