How often should a sports nutrition brand run MMM?
About once a quarter, timed after a season has played out rather than in the middle of it. If January is your peak, refresh in early spring, once the rush and its reorders are in. Rebuild when you add a channel, such as paid athlete deals.
By Joris van Huët, Founder & CEOUpdated 5 min read
If you sell sports nutrition, plan a refresh about once a quarter, timed after a season has played out, not in the middle of it. If January is your busiest month, run one in early spring, once the rush and its reorders are in. Rebuild when you add a channel, such as paid athlete deals.
If you sell sports nutrition
If you sell protein, pre-workout or electrolytes, your weeks probably move with the calendar: new-year goals, summer training, race seasons. Promotions stack on top, and a new flavour can lift a fortnight of sales on its own. If buyers reorder when a tub runs out, part of every week is repeat business your ads did not just cause.
That shapes the timing more than the frequency. A mix model needs to see a season from start to finish to tell the season from the ads. Robyn's guide says seasonality and holidays should be included in the model, and Robyn splits out trend, season and holidays on its own. Refresh in the middle of a peak and the newest weeks are all high, with the fall still to come.
What one store's data shows
One store's anonymised GA4 export, 1 January 2024 to 21 August 2026. It holds shares of revenue only: no ad spend, no order counts.
| What the export shows | Share of revenue | Source cell |
|---|---|---|
| Journeys with 1 touch (0.5 days to buy) | 79.5% | Journeys sheet, 1 touch row |
| Journeys with 2 to 3 touches (12.5 days to buy) | 12.2% | Journeys sheet, 2-3 touches row |
| Direct, in last click, first click and touched views | 57.7% | Channels sheet, Direct row |
Store A is one store, and nothing in its export says it sells sports nutrition. On its Journeys sheet, journeys with 1 touch hold 79.5% of revenue and took 0.5 days to buy. Journeys with 2 to 3 touches hold 12.2% and took 12.5 days, on the same Journeys sheet. On the Channels sheet, Direct holds 57.7% of revenue in all three views.
If you sell supplements, reorders are one plausible reason for fast, one-visit, direct purchases: the buyer knows the tub and comes straight back. A mix model would count most of those in its baseline, which is right if the ads did not cause them. Your own export can show whether your revenue looks like this one.
What this export cannot show is which purchases were reorders. It holds shares by channel and journey length, not customers. It holds no spend either, so it cannot feed a model on its own.
What changes for a sports nutrition brand?
Pick a target that reorders do not swamp. If subscriptions make up much of your revenue, total sales move slowly and the ads' effect on new buyers gets diluted. Robyn takes either revenue or conversions as the thing to explain, so first orders are a fair choice.
Split a channel when its job changes. If an athlete partnership turns from free product into a paid deal, treat it as a new variable, which in Robyn's guide means a rebuild. Google's Meridian handles a channel that changed by splitting its data into separate periods, and it cautions against too many splits.
Flag each promotion type on its own. Robyn's guide asks for a separate dummy variable for each promotion you want measured. Flavour drops, bundle deals and sitewide sales are three flags, not one, or the model hands their lift to whichever channel spent most that week.
What to do this week
- Find your seasons in Shopify. In Shopify admin, open Analytics > Reports > Total sales over time. In the Dimensions menu, set the time unit to week and look at the last two years. Pass: you can name your peak weeks and when each peak fades. Fail: no clear pattern, so time refreshes to budget meetings instead of seasons.
- List your promotions. Open the Discounts page in your Shopify admin and note when each sale ran and what kind it was. Pass: every promotion of the last two years has dates and a type. Fail: gaps, so fill them in before the next run.
- Check how fast buyers come back. In GA4, click Advertising, then Key event attribution paths under the Key events drop-down, and read Days to key events for your top paths. Pass: you know how long your multi-touch buyers take. Fail: everything looks like same-day Direct, so tag your reorder emails before you trust the baseline.
Check the homework. Your GA4 Attribution paths export already holds the evidence. Causality Engine reads that one file and shows what each channel caused next to what last-click gave it, in 1 to 2 minutes, for €99 once (excluding VAT), refundable within 30 days. Check the homework
Sources, 1 October 2026: Robyn: An Analyst's Guide to MMM (Meta); Robyn: Key Features (Meta); Meridian: FAQs (Google); Setting and comparing time ranges for your reports (Shopify); Discounts (Shopify); Key events attribution paths report (Google)
Related answers
Frequently asked questions
Should a supplement brand model first orders instead of total revenue?
Often that is the cleaner choice if subscriptions make up much of your sales. Ads usually do their work on the first order, and renewals follow the product. Modelling first orders keeps renewals from drowning the ad effect. Keep total revenue as a second view.Do flavour launches belong in a mix model?
Yes, as their own event rather than as media. Give the launch weeks a flag, so the model does not hand the extra sales to whichever channel spent more that week. Robyn's guide asks for a separate flag for each promotion type you want measured, and a launch works the same way.When is the worst time to refresh a sports nutrition model?
In the middle of your peak, if you have one. The newest weeks would all be high, with the fall still to come, so the model may credit whichever channel spent most during the rush. Wait until the peak and a few quieter weeks are in.
Go deeper: Causal attribution, explained.
Sixty-second versions of these ideas: Causality Engine on YouTube Shorts.
Keep reading
Terms in this article
- Ad SpendAd Spend is the total amount invested in advertising campaigns. It is measured against Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) to evaluate campaign effectiveness.
- AnalyticsAnalytics is the systematic computational analysis of data. It reveals customer behavior and measures campaign performance.
- AttributionAttribution identifies user actions that contribute to a desired outcome and assigns value to each. It reveals which marketing touchpoints drive conversions.
- CausalityCausality is the relationship where one event directly causes another, essential for identifying specific actions that drive desired outcomes in marketing.
- ConversionConversion is a specific, desired action a user takes in response to a marketing message, such as a purchase or a sign-up.
- Marketing MixThe marketing mix is the set of actions a company uses to promote its brand or product. It traditionally includes product, price, place, and promotion.
- Marketing Mix ModelingMarketing Mix Modeling (MMM) is a statistical analysis that estimates the impact of marketing and advertising campaigns on sales. It quantifies each channel's contribution to sales.
- RevenueRevenue is the total income generated by the sale of goods or services related to a company's primary operations.