Should my Google Shopping target include shipping costs?

Yes, on the cost side. If you use Shopify's Google & YouTube app, the value Google receives leaves out shipping charges and taxes. So take the shipping you pay out of your margin before you divide 1 by it, or your floor sits too low.

Why is my Shopping ROAS sliding toward my target?

Probably because the campaign is limited by budget and used to beat its target. Google now steers such campaigns closer to the number you set. That changed on 17 August 2026. If the slide costs you money, raise the target to your floor or to recent performance.

Should brand searches count toward my Shopping ROAS target?

Judge them apart if you can. People searching your shop's name were often coming anyway, so a Shopping ad there collects more than it causes. Performance Max offers brand exclusions to block such queries, or you can hold brand traffic to a higher target.

What ROAS should I target on Google Shopping?

Usually at least your break-even ROAS: 1 divided by the margin a sale leaves after product, shipping and payment costs. Google Ads takes it as a percentage. Give each margin group its own target, and raise it where Shopping ads catch buyers who were coming anyway.

By Joris van Huët, Founder & CEOUpdated 2026-10-017 min read

Run the numbers for your store: the free break-even ROAS calculator.

Usually, target at least your break-even ROAS: 1 divided by the margin a sale leaves after product, shipping and payment costs. Google Ads takes it as a percentage. Give low-margin and high-margin products separate targets. Then raise each one if your Shopping ads mostly catch people who were already searching for you.

The usual answer is a round number from someone else's account, or the target Google fills in for you. Neither has seen your margin. And since August, the number you type matters more than it used to.

What one store's data shows

One store's anonymised GA4 export, 1 January 2024 to 21 August 2026. It holds shares of revenue only: no ad spend, no order counts.

What the export shows	Value	Source cell
Break-even ROAS at a 40% margin (1 divided by 0.40)	2.5x	Break-even sheet, 40% margin row
Direct, in last click, first click and touched views	57.7% of revenue	Channels sheet, Direct row
Journeys with 1 touch (0.5 days to buy)	79.5% of revenue	Journeys sheet, 1 touch row
Journeys with 4 to 9 touches (16.9 days to buy)	5.4% of revenue	Journeys sheet, 4-9 touches row
Journeys with 10 or more touches (16.0 days to buy)	3.0% of revenue	Journeys sheet, 10+ touches row

Start with the floor. On the Break-even sheet, 1 divided by 0.40 is 2.5, so a 40% margin breaks even at 2.5x. Google Ads wants a percentage, so for illustration that floor goes in as 250%. It is arithmetic on product margin, not a ROAS this store reached: the export holds no spend.

Now the Direct row. The Channels sheet puts Direct at 57.7% of revenue in last click, first click and touched views alike. More than half of the money arrived on paths GA4 could only label Direct. Demand that turns up unprompted is demand a Shopping ad can stand in front of. If someone searches your shop's name and clicks your ad on the way in, Google Ads books the sale.

The journeys explain why that sale looks so clean. Journeys with 1 touch hold 79.5% of revenue on the Journeys sheet, and those buyers took 0.5 days. With one touch, every attribution model hands that touch the whole sale. If it was a Shopping click, the ROAS takes full marks for a buyer who may have needed no help.

The slow rows tell a different story. On the Journeys sheet, journeys with 4 to 9 touches took 16.9 days to buy, and journeys with 10 or more touches took 16.0 days. Google Ads records a purchase within 30 days of an ad click unless you change the conversion window. So a Shopping click that opened one of those journeys was usually still inside the window when the buyer paid. Google Ads then counts the sale for its click, while other channels on the path can claim it in their own reports.

What the export cannot show: whether this store ran Shopping ads, what they cost or what any ad caused. It describes one store and is not a benchmark for yours.

Why does Google's suggested target mislead?

Because it answers a question about the auction, and you asked one about money. Google's Shopping help says to start from your average conversion value divided by cost over the last 4 weeks. Its Smart Bidding tips say the target should be at or below your historical ROAS. In Performance Max, the target box can arrive ticked, with a suggestion based on historical data.

All three describe what bidding delivered. None of them knows what a sale leaves you. If the last month lost money, a target copied from it keeps losing money, just more politely.

Since 17 August 2026, that habit costs more. Google now steers Target ROAS campaigns that are limited by budget closer to the target you set, even when they used to beat it. For illustration, a campaign with a 300% target that delivered 450% will drift toward 300%.

A single target also averages your catalogue. For illustration, a product with a 60% margin breaks even at about 167%, and one with a 20% margin at 500%. For example, a 300% target overpays for the second and holds back the first. Google's own custom label example is Margin, with LowMargin and HighMargin as values. Label products that way, and each group can get its own campaign and its own target.

Shipping is the last trap. Google's notes for Shopify say the Google & YouTube app sends a purchase value without shipping charges and taxes. Since 24 April 2025, discounts come off that value too. So the shipping you pay has to come off your margin before you divide, or your floor sits too low.

What can the ROAS number not tell you?

Whether the ad caused the sale. Google Ads records a conversion when a purchase follows an ad interaction inside the window, whether or not the buyer needed the nudge. Performance Max lists brand exclusions among its controls, to block unwanted queries. Use them, or hold brand searches to a higher target.

Who the buyer was. Google lets you bid higher for new customers than existing ones, an admission that the two are not worth the same. A blended target treats a loyal customer's reorder like a stranger's first order.

And what any of it caused. To find out, switch Shopping off in some regions, keep it on in the rest and compare total sales. That is a holdout test, and no ROAS column can run one for you.

What to do this week

Write your floor as a percentage. In Shopify, open Analytics, then Reports, and pick Profit margin by order from the Profit Margin category. Take payment fees off the margin it shows, divide 1 by what is left and multiply by 100. Pass: a floor written as a percentage, ready for Google Ads. Fail: a ratio copied from someone else's account.
Hold last month against it. In Google Ads, open the Columns drop-down, choose Modify columns and add Conv. value/cost from the Conversions list. Leave the latest few days out, since late conversions are still arriving. Pass: every Shopping and Performance Max campaign clears its floor. Fail: one sits below it, so fix its products or cut it before you set any target.
Compare each target with the floor. On the Campaigns page, add the Avg. Target ROAS column from the Performance category. Pass: every Shopping campaign's average target sits at or above its floor. Fail: one sits below it, and since August a budget-limited campaign aims closer to that number.

Check the homework. Your GA4 Attribution paths export already holds the evidence. Causality Engine reads that one file and shows what each channel caused next to what last-click gave it, in 1 to 2 minutes, for €99 once (excluding VAT), refundable within 30 days. Check the homework

Frequently asked questions

Should my Google Shopping target include shipping costs?
Yes, on the cost side. If you use Shopify's Google & YouTube app, the value Google receives leaves out shipping charges and taxes. So take the shipping you pay out of your margin before you divide 1 by it, or your floor sits too low.
Why is my Shopping ROAS sliding toward my target?
Probably because the campaign is limited by budget and used to beat its target. Google now steers such campaigns closer to the number you set. That changed on 17 August 2026. If the slide costs you money, raise the target to your floor or to recent performance.
Should brand searches count toward my Shopping ROAS target?
Judge them apart if you can. People searching your shop's name were often coming anyway, so a Shopping ad there collects more than it causes. Performance Max offers brand exclusions to block such queries, or you can hold brand traffic to a higher target.

Go deeper: Causal attribution, explained.

Sixty-second versions of these ideas: Causality Engine on YouTube Shorts.

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