Shopify Attribution: Measure Incremental ROAS
Shopify is the source of truth for what sold. It is not the source of truth for what caused the sale. Causality Engine runs causal attribution on your Shopify and GA4 history and returns incremental ROAS per channel with confidence intervals in about 90 seconds. No pixel, no SDK, no app to install.
Why Shopify alone cannot tell you what is working
- Shopify shows orders and referral source but each ad platform also claims the same orders in its own dashboard
- Channels routinely add up to more than 100% of real orders shipped, which is mathematically impossible
- Shopify cannot distinguish channels that caused a sale from channels that merely touched the visitor
- Built-in attribution settings only redistribute credit by rules, never measure incrementality
- When you change attribution windows or models, the numbers shift but reality does not
How Causality Engine extends Shopify
- Independent causal attribution: estimates what would have sold without each channel
- Per-channel incremental ROAS plus confidence intervals so you know how hard to lean on each number
- No pixel, no app install, no engineering ticket: runs on your Shopify orders export plus GA4
- Confidence-scored output makes budget reallocation defensible in a finance meeting
- Results in about 90 seconds on 90 days of data
GA4 CSV upload
Export 90 days of orders
Standard Shopify orders CSV export. No app install, no permissions to grant.
Export your GA4 sessions
Standard GA4 acquisition export. Drag both files into Causality Engine.
Read your causal numbers
Incremental ROAS per channel with confidence intervals in about 90 seconds.
Frequently asked questions
Do I need to install a Shopify app?
No. Causality Engine runs on your standard Shopify orders export and your GA4 export. There is nothing to install on Shopify and nothing to grant in the admin.
Why is the causal ROAS lower than what Shopify and my ad platforms report?
Shopify and each ad platform claim credit for the same orders, which is why their numbers add up to more than 100% of real sales. Causal attribution removes the would-have-happened-anyway portion and reports only incremental sales.
How is this different from Shopify's built-in attribution settings?
Shopify's attribution settings redistribute credit by rules (last-click, first-click, model-based). Causal attribution measures whether each conversion would have happened anyway, then credits only the incremental ones.
Does it work on past data?
Yes. That is the native mode. Upload 90 days of Shopify and GA4 history and the model runs on it directly. No tracking ramp-up.
Last-click guesses.We run the math.
Causal attribution for Shopify brands. Upload your GA4 export, see which channels really drove revenue in 5–10 minutes. €99, pay-per-use. Pro at €299/mo when you want it continuous.
The math behind your marketing.
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