The lift surprises hiding in your own Shopify data
Four things that keep surprising brands the first time they read their channels causally, and the unglamorous explanation behind each one.
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By Joris van Huët, Founder & CEOUpdated 2 min read
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The four
| Pattern | What it looks like | The ordinary explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Retargeting overstated | Excellent reported ROAS, wide causal interval | It reaches people already intending to buy |
| A channel that cannot be measured at all | No estimate returned | Spend below the level any method can resolve |
Branded search
Branded search converts extremely well because the person already typed your name. Something made them type it, and that something is usually a channel further up.
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Retargeting
The same structure with a different mechanism. Retargeting reaches people who already visited, so it is selecting on intent rather than creating it. High reported ROAS is a description of the audience, not of the channel's effect. The holdout on retargeting is the test that settles it for a specific brand.
Email doing better than the dashboards say
The mirror-image surprise. Email rarely appears in ad platform reporting at all, so it looks small in any view assembled from platform claims.
The channel with no estimate
A well-built method declines to score a channel whose spend is too small for its effect to be separated from noise. The first reaction is usually that the tool is broken. It is the opposite: a tool that returns a confident number for a channel spending very little is filling in rather than measuring. The reasoning is in the measurability floor.
What to do with a surprise
Not act on it immediately. A single observational read is one piece of evidence, and the correct response to a surprising result is to check whether the window contained something unusual, then design a proper test on the channel with the most at stake. That sequence is in cut the channel you would holdout first.
Related answers
Frequently asked questions
Should I cut retargeting if its causal estimate is weak?
Not on one observational read. A weak estimate means the channel is reaching people who already intended to buy, which is worth testing directly with a holdout before making a cut, because retargeting economics vary a lot by brand and basket.Why did my tool refuse to score one of my channels?
Because its spend is below the level at which any method can separate its effect from noise. Declining to score is the honest behaviour. A tool that returns a confident figure for a very small channel is filling the gap rather than measuring it.
Go deeper: Causal attribution, explained.
Sixty-second versions of these ideas: Causality Engine on YouTube Shorts.
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Keep reading
Terms in this article
- AttributionAttribution identifies user actions that contribute to a desired outcome and assigns value to each. It reveals which marketing touchpoints drive conversions.
- DashboardA dashboard is a visual display of key information required to achieve specific objectives. It consolidates data onto a single screen for quick review.
- DashboardsDashboards are graphical user interfaces that provide at-a-glance views of key performance indicators (KPIs). They monitor campaign performance and visualize attribution insights.
- IncrementalityIncrementality is the part of an outcome, such as orders or revenue, that a marketing activity caused: the extra results compared with what would have happened without it. It is a causal effect, not the number of conversions credited to a channel.
- Multi-Touch AttributionMulti-Touch Attribution assigns credit to multiple marketing touchpoints across the customer journey. It provides a complete view of channel impact on conversions.
- RetargetingRetargeting is online advertising that targets users who have previously interacted with your website or content. Attribution analysis shows the causal role of retargeting in driving conversions and improving ad spend.
- ShopifyShopify is an ecommerce platform for creating online stores and selling products. Attribution modeling shows which marketing channels drive traffic and conversions within Shopify.