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Attribution

3 min read

Defending a finding with ten minutes on the agenda

Ten minutes forces hard choices about what to leave out. What survives the cut, what goes in the appendix, and the two sentences that have to open it.

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Quick Answer·3 min read

Defending a finding with ten minutes on the agenda: Ten minutes forces hard choices about what to leave out. What survives the cut, what goes in the appendix, and the two sentences that have to open it.

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Attribution by the numbers

Avg ad spend wasted

30%

Meta ROAS inflation

2.3x

Cost to find out

€99

Setup time

2 min

Ten minutes is enough if you decide in advance what you are not going to say. Most presentations fail by covering the method thoroughly and running out of time before the decision.

The ten minutes

MinutesContent
0 to 1The design and its limits, in two sentences
1 to 4The per-channel table, read aloud once
4 to 6The gap against platform numbers, with the ratio
6 to 8The decision you are asking for
8 to 10Questions

The two opening sentences

The first names the design: this is an observational causal estimate, not a test. The second names the limit: three channels could not be measured at their current spend, and they are listed at the bottom.

Getting both out in the first minute does two things. It pre-empts the objection that would otherwise arrive at minute seven, and it establishes that you are the person in the room least likely to overstate. Everything afterwards is read in that light.

The table

Per channel: estimate, confidence interval, coverage share. Read it once, aloud, slowly. Do not walk through the method for each channel; if someone wants that, it is minute eight.

Point at the widest interval yourself before anyone else does.

The gap slide

Have the ratio ready: the sum of platform-claimed revenue for the window divided by what the store actually took. Above one is expected and the size is the point. This is the two minutes that most often changes how a room reads its dashboards afterwards, and it needs no statistics. Method in the claim ratio.

The ask

Make it specific and small. Not "we should change our attribution philosophy" but "hold this channel's budget steady for four weeks so we can read it properly", or "reduce this one by a third and re-read in a month". A small concrete ask survives a short meeting; a large abstract one does not.

The structure for a cut recommendation is in which channels to cut, for the CFO.

What goes in the appendix

The method. The window justification. The channel-by-channel notes. All of it belongs in a document you can send afterwards, and almost none of it belongs in ten minutes.

What to hand out

One page, the same one you would send to finance: per channel estimate, interval, coverage, design label. That is what a €99 one-time read on a Google Analytics export returns, refundable if it does not move a budget decision, and it is deliberately one page.

The interactive demo is a useful thing to send round beforehand, with no signup, so the format is familiar before the ten minutes start.

The failure mode to avoid

Spending seven minutes establishing that the method is sound and two minutes on the finding. The room does not need to be convinced of causal inference. It needs a bounded claim and a specific ask.

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