The three signs you are overcounting
One: your platform totals exceed real orders
Your channels' claimed conversions add up to more than 100% of real orders. The math does not work; the platforms cannot all be right at once.
Two: your retargeting ROAS is dramatically higher than prospecting
Retargeting harvests demand other channels created. When its reported ROAS dwarfs prospecting, you are seeing other channels' work credited to it.
Three: cutting a profitable channel does not dent revenue
If a channel reports 5x but turning it off does not move total revenue much, its reported ROAS was mostly captured demand, not caused demand.
Why it happens
Every platform counts conversions within its own attribution window, by its own rules, with no knowledge of the others. View-through and retargeting conversions get claimed by multiple channels at once. Nobody is lying; everyone is grading their own homework with a generous rubric.
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The fix - measure incrementality, not credit
Overcounting disappears when you stop dividing credit and start measuring causation. Causal attribution models the whole mix together and asks whether each conversion was incremental, so the numbers reconcile to reality instead of exceeding it.
Frequently asked questions
Is overcounting the same as ad fraud?
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No - it is mis-attribution of real sales, not fake ones.
Which channels overcount most?
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Typically retargeting, branded search, and email flows, which capture existing intent.
How do I fix it?
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Measure each channel's incremental contribution rather than its claimed credit.
