Causal Inference for Klaviyo on Shopify

Statistical methods for determining cause-and-effect relationships. Here's how this applies specifically to Klaviyo advertising and why causal inference gives you a clearer picture than Klaviyo's own reporting.

What is Causal Inference?

Statistical methods for determining cause-and-effect relationships. For Shopify brands running Klaviyo campaigns, understanding this concept is critical because it directly impacts how you evaluate Klaviyo's contribution to your revenue.

Causal Inference	Klaviyo reports	Causal truth
Data source	Klaviyo Ads Manager	GA4 + Shopify (independent)
Methodology	Click/view tracking	Causal inference
Bias	Self-serving (overcredits Klaviyo)	Independent (no platform bias)

Why Klaviyo's view of causal inference is misleading

Klaviyo credits a sale to email if the customer opened ANY email in the attribution window — even if they bought through a Google ad
Post-purchase flows get credit for repeat purchases that were already inevitable — inflating email ROAS by 2-5x
Welcome series attribution ignores that these customers just signed up and were going to buy regardless

How causal inference measures causal inference for Klaviyo

Causal inference separates email-driven purchases from purchases that would've happened without the email
Counterfactual analysis: what would revenue look like if this email flow didn't exist?
Cross-channel Shapley values show email's true role alongside paid channels