Black Friday
Black Friday is the day after Thanksgiving in the United States. It marks the start of the Christmas shopping season and is a major sales event for retailers.
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By Joris van Huët, Founder & CEOUpdated 4 min read
What is Black Friday?
Black Friday, occurring the day after Thanksgiving in the United States, marks the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season and has evolved into the largest single-day sales event for retailers, especially in ecommerce. Originating in the 1960s, the term "Black Friday" originally described the heavy pedestrian and vehicle traffic in Philadelphia as shoppers flooded downtown stores. Over time, it transformed into a day when retailers offer significant discounts, aiming to shift their financials "into the black," or profitability.
The significance of Black Friday in ecommerce is heightened by the rise of online shopping platforms like Shopify, which help small and medium-sized businesses to participate in this mega-sale event without the overhead of physical stores. Fashion and beauty brands, for example, use Black Friday to clear inventory, acquire new customers with aggressive promotions, and increase average order values through bundle deals and upsells. From a technical standpoint, Black Friday campaigns require advanced attribution models to accurately measure the impact of multiple touchpoints, from paid social ads on Meta to email marketing and influencer partnerships.
Unlike traditional last-click attribution, causal inference isolates the true incremental impact of Black Friday campaigns by controlling for confounding variables such as seasonality and competitor activity. This enables brands to improve ad spend based on the genuine ROI of each channel during one of the busiest shopping days of the year, ultimately driving more profitable growth.
Why Black Friday matters for ecommerce
For ecommerce marketers, Black Friday is an unparalleled opportunity to boost sales volume, increase customer acquisition, and enhance brand visibility. The day’s intense shopping activity means that even marginal improvements in conversion rates or average order values can translate into significant revenue gains. Properly attributing sales during Black Friday campaigns is critical to understanding which marketing channels and tactics deliver genuine incremental sales, rather than crediting conversions to last-click or simplistic models. Accurate attribution directly impacts ROI by informing budget allocation. Furthermore, brands that use data-driven insights during Black Friday gain a competitive advantage by avoiding overspend on ineffective channels and focusing on high-impact tactics.
How to use Black Friday
- Plan Early and Segment Audiences: Use your ecommerce platform data to identify high-value customer segments and target them with personalized offers. Shopify analytics can help segment repeat buyers versus new customers.
- Use Multi-Channel Campaigns: Coordinate marketing efforts across paid social (Facebook, Instagram), email, SMS, and influencer marketing.
- Set Up Incrementality Tests: Before Black Friday, run A/B tests or holdout experiments to measure the incremental lift from specific campaigns or platforms.
- Improve Budget Allocation: Based on incremental ROI insights, dynamically shift spend towards the best-performing channels and creatives.
- Post-Event Analysis: After Black Friday, conduct a complete attribution analysis to understand the full customer journey and refine strategies for Cyber Monday and the holiday season.
Common mistakes
- Relying on Last-Click Attribution: Many marketers credit the last touchpoint with the entire sale, ignoring the multi-touch nature of Black Friday campaigns. This skews ROI measurement and leads to poor budget allocation.
- Ignoring Incrementality Testing: Launching broad campaigns without testing their incremental impact can result in wasted spend. Implement holdout groups or A/B tests to measure true lift.
- Overextending Discounts: Excessive discounting erodes margin and trains customers to wait for sales. Balance compelling offers with profitability.
- Lack of Real-Time Monitoring: Waiting until after the event to analyze performance misses opportunities for in-campaign optimization. Use real-time attribution tools to adjust budgets on the fly.
Frequently asked questions
How can e-commerce brands measure the true impact of Black Friday campaigns?
Ecommerce brands should use incrementality testing and causal inference models to isolate the actual lift generated by Black Friday campaigns.What types of promotions work best on Black Friday for fashion and beauty brands?
Limited-time exclusive discounts, bundle offers, and free gifts with purchase tend to perform well. Fashion brands can use tiered discounts to increase average order value, while beauty brands benefit from curated sets and loyalty rewards.Is it better to start Black Friday promotions early or concentrate them on the day itself?
Starting promotions early with teaser campaigns can build anticipation and allow for data collection, but the highest sales volume typically occurs on Black Friday itself. Combining early engagement with strong day-of offers maximizes overall results.How does mobile shopping affect Black Friday strategies?
Brands that neglect mobile risk losing significant conversions.Can small e-commerce brands compete effectively during Black Friday?
Absolutely. Platforms like Shopify enable small brands to access scalable marketing tools.